Dr Jeff Cornwall

A Tough Road During Tough Times

Several new studies of small business owners today show that tough times continue for entrepreneurs.

Two surveys released today offer some disturbing results.  Wave Accounting, a cloud based accounting software company for micro and SMB’s, released a survey of their 250,000 micro and SMB customers and Pepperdine University’s Graziadio School of Business and Management joined with Dun & Bradstreet Credibility in a survey released today of 6,000 small business owners.

The Wave survey reinforced what a lot of us suspected.  The number of accidental entrepreneurs, those who started businesses after finding themselves unemployed and unable to find work, has doubled over the rate found before the recession began (from 9% to 18%).

And the role that government incentives played in their decision to launch their business?  Only 2% of respondents in the Wave survey said government incentives fed the decision to go into business for themselves.  And in the Pepperdine survey, only 1% said the highly publicized crowdfunding JOBS Act would have any impact on their ability to raise needed funding.  So don’t let politicians fool you into believing that their attempts to steer and guide the economy have an impact!

And speaking of financing, only 41% of the businesses looking to raise capital were successful.

A shocking figure from the Wave survey relates to how well the business owners were able to meet their basic needs through their business. An incredible 52% of American small business owners can’t put food on the table through the earnings from their business over the past twelve months.

Even though many said they can’t make ends, it is not due to a lack of effort.  Two thirds (66%) of business owners in the Wave survey reported struggling with time management and work/life balance with 43% of respondents having to work after normal business hours to take care of administrative tasks like accounting and bookkeeping.

All of these results shed light on why business owners remain gloomy about the outlooks of the economy.  Last week the NFIB small business optimism survey continued to show weak results.

“In the last year, small-business optimism has limped along, and today the sector is no better off than it was just over a year ago,” said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg. “The lack of progress is discouraging, producing no signs that economic activity will pick up this year at all. The calculus of spending decisions requires an estimate of future sales, tax rates, interest rates and credit availability, labor costs, health-care costs, regulatory compliance costs, all of which are very uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is the result of what is happening—and not happening—in Washington.”

A survey released earlier this month by Citibank suggests that entrepreneurs are not giving up in spite of all of the challenges they now face.  53% of respondents of this survey say they have reinvented their business models “to stay afloat or competitive.” This strategy is reinforced in the current competitive climate that 38% of respondents describe as “extremely intense.”

As I have pointed out in the past, we need to keep in mind that all of these results come from surveys of business owners who have survived the recession.  Imagine what all of those who are casualties of the Great Recession might tell us!

Platform Suggestions

Those meeting in Tampa Bay and Charlotte for the two major national political conventions  will be giving lots of lip service to entrepreneurs and small businesses.  If they want to add some substance to their platforms, they need to remember that the burden of taxes an regulation are two of the biggest challenges facing business owners that government can change.  That is what our attention should be on if we want entrepreneurs to try to help pull this economy out of this prolonged downturn.  What kind of burden are small businesses facing?  Take a look at this graphic:

Chamber of CommerceInfographic designed by Chamber of Commerce

May Updates on Small Business Economy

While April showers have brought wonderful May flowers in our backyard, entrepreneurial economy is not blossoming going into the summer.

Here are some highlights from various indicators:

  • 71 percent of small business owners still believe the United States economy is in a recession according to results of the 2012 U.S. Bank Small Business Annual Survey
  • The SurePayroll Scorecard data shows that month-over-month, hiring and paycheck size show little change, both down 0.1%, while year-over-year, hiring is down 1.5% and paychecks are down 1.1%. Optimism among small business owners is also down from last month.
  • Intuit’s Small Business Revenue Index shows that revenues have been growing slowly, while their Small Business Employment Index shows that employment is growing slowly, by 0.2 percent in May.
  • Data from nominees to Ernst & Young’s Entrepreneur of the Year program, shows that over the last two years employment growth in this select group of high-growth companies was 31% job growth. While this sounds promising, these businesses are hard-wired for growth, so in many ways these figures are not as robust as I would hope to see.
  • William C. Dunkelberg at NFIB said this today about their latest small business survey, “May was a stagnant month for employment in the small-business sector, with the net change in employment per firm, seasonally adjusted coming in at ’0′.”

Small Businesses Still not Hiring

It is getting to be a broken record — we need small businesses to lead us into a real recovery that is based on job growth, but small businesses are just not ready to increase their workforces.

Two job indexes released this week show mixed results.

SurePayroll Scorecard data shows that month-over-month, hiring is down -0.1% and average paychecks are down 0.3%.  Looking at this year compared to 2011 at the same time, hiring is down 1.3% and paychecks are down 1.3%.

The same survey showed a drop in optimism among small business owners to 65%, down from last month’s 70% finding.

Like the recent NFIB surveys, those small businesses looking to hire are finding it a challenge, particularly when it comes to finding qualified technology, sales/marketing, customer service, administrative workers.

The Intuit Small Business Employment Index shows that small business employment increased slightly — 0.2 in April.

Taken together it paints a familiar picture — no recovery led by small businesses is visible at this time.

I’m Not the Only One Worried Right Now

Senator Sam Brownback and Representative Jim Saxton have released an
updated version of Recent Economic Developments today, titled
“Unprecedented Fed Actions, Recession Signs, Stagflation Fears.”

Highlights of the report are:

- The Fed agreed to take $29 billion of assets onto its balance
sheet, retaining private asset management firm BlackRock Inc. to manage
the portfolio which is, effectively, owned by U.S. taxpayers. This
raises many public policy issues.

- The unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in March, from 4.8% in February.

- Non-farm payroll employment declined by 80,000 in March, the 3rd
consecutive monthly decline. Higher unemployment and declining payrolls
suggest that we may be in a recession.

- GDP growth was an anemic 0.6% in the 4th quarter. Fears of stagflation have arisen given: slowing growth; rising unemployment; employment declines; rapid increases in energy and food prices.

There’s a Storm Brewin’

Recession clouds appeared in the skies over Main Street, according
to the most recent National Federation of Independent Business Small
Business Economic Trends member survey. The NFIB Index of Small
Business Optimism fell 3.3 points in March to 89.6 — its lowest
reading since the monthly surveys were started in 1986, and the lowest
quarterly reading since the second quarter of 1980. The decline was
driven by a sour outlook for business conditions and real sales growth,
accounting for half the decline in the Index. Weaker plans to create
new jobs accounted for 21 percent of the decline.

“We are seeing recession readings,” said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg.

What is worse is that the labor market is still somewhat tight and price pressures continue to push costs up.

More signs that stagflation might be on the horizon.