Bloggers Share Their Collective Minds

The mood is still pretty down among small business owners.  For example, according to the latest SurePayroll Small Business Scorecard, business owners' optimism is at the lowest levels since last year about this time.

It seems that the mood of us who blog about the economy is at least as dour as the players we follow in the economy -- in my case, the entrepreneurs and small business owners in our economy. 

Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation released a survey today reporting that 48 percent of economics bloggers said that the economy was "worse than official government statistics show."  (Although I am not an economics blogger, per se, I find myself writing about economic policy from the entrepreneurship slant, so have been included by Kauffman in this group). 

In the inaugural Kauffman Economic Outlook: A Quarterly Survey of Top Economics Bloggers, the Kauffman Foundation sent invitations to more than 200 top economics bloggers. The Foundation will be surveying the bloggers about their views of the economy, entrepreneurship and innovation every quarter to provide a new gauge for the nation's fiscal health.

"As independent thinkers who are immersed in discourse through the innovation of blogging, these economics writers have a unique voice and perspective, and potentially profound influence," said Tim Kane, senior fellow at the Kauffman Foundation and author of the study. "While they individually express themselves virtually every day, we think their collective voice needs to be heard."

Research highlights include:

• The bloggers expect the greatest growth prospects over the next three years to be in interest rates, inflation and the budget deficit. U.S. output and jobs are expected to increase, but with about half the intensity of growth in global output.

• The panel assesses conditions as "bad" or "very bad" for small business (52 percent) and bank lending to business (51 percent) and individuals (50 percent). The outlook for entrepreneurs is a relative bright spot, with opinions mixed between bad conditions (36 percent) and good (26 percent).

• Seven out of 10 bloggers say the federal government is too involved in economic matters, and they share a clear consensus for action. Tax cuts, especially on payrolls, are recommended, and three ways to cut the deficit had overwhelming support: Medical entitlements, Social Security and Defense should all be reduced.