William C. Dunkelberg, chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business, issued the following statement on December job numbers based on NFIB's monthly economic survey.
"Despite the holiday season, December didn't put small business owners in a hiring mood. Last month, small business owners reported a decline in average employment per firm of 0.5 workers reported during the prior three months, not much of an improvement from November's loss of .58 workers per firm.
"Ten percent of the owners increased employment by an average of 4.2 workers per firm, but 22 percent reduced employment an average of 3.5 workers per firm (seasonally adjusted). Growth from new firms will provide a positive nudge to the macro BLS numbers. But overall, the job-generating machine remains in reverse.
"A slowdown in firing will also help job creation, but there is no real strength in job growth because there is no real strength in spending. It is picking up, but not returning to the levels that supported the employment levels of 2007. Employment reductions have proceeded faster than the decline in GDP (thus strong productivity numbers), creating the possibility that employment could respond faster in the early part of the recovery than many expect. However, there is no indication that job growth will be strong enough to dramatically reduce the unemployment rate.
"Ten percent (seasonally adjusted) reported unfilled job openings, up two points from November, a good sign. Over the next three months, 15 percent plan to reduce employment (down two points), and 8 percent plan to create new jobs (up one point), yielding a seasonally adjusted net-negative 2 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, a one-point improvement, but still more firms planning to cut jobs than planning to add. Not seasonally adjusted, net job creation plans were positive in the professional services and the wholesale trades, negative in all other industries."
"Despite the holiday season, December didn't put small business owners in a hiring mood. Last month, small business owners reported a decline in average employment per firm of 0.5 workers reported during the prior three months, not much of an improvement from November's loss of .58 workers per firm.
"Ten percent of the owners increased employment by an average of 4.2 workers per firm, but 22 percent reduced employment an average of 3.5 workers per firm (seasonally adjusted). Growth from new firms will provide a positive nudge to the macro BLS numbers. But overall, the job-generating machine remains in reverse.
"A slowdown in firing will also help job creation, but there is no real strength in job growth because there is no real strength in spending. It is picking up, but not returning to the levels that supported the employment levels of 2007. Employment reductions have proceeded faster than the decline in GDP (thus strong productivity numbers), creating the possibility that employment could respond faster in the early part of the recovery than many expect. However, there is no indication that job growth will be strong enough to dramatically reduce the unemployment rate.
"Ten percent (seasonally adjusted) reported unfilled job openings, up two points from November, a good sign. Over the next three months, 15 percent plan to reduce employment (down two points), and 8 percent plan to create new jobs (up one point), yielding a seasonally adjusted net-negative 2 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, a one-point improvement, but still more firms planning to cut jobs than planning to add. Not seasonally adjusted, net job creation plans were positive in the professional services and the wholesale trades, negative in all other industries."
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