I am at a blogger forum in Kansas City today hosted by the Kauffman Foundation. It was organized by Tim Kane who blogs at Kauffman's Growthology blog.
There were several great sessions.
One that was particularly interesting was a forum of economics bloggers. Paul Kedrosky expressed his concerns that the President is over-focusing his attention on VCs as the means to stimulate the entrepreneurial sector. He pointed out, and I agree, that although important, this is not the main driver of the entrepreneurial economy. It is small businesses being bootstrapped and self-financed. The President's focus on increasing marginal tax rates will only stifle this part of the entrepreneurial equation.
Arnold Kling told us that he has been considering four scenarios using a two dimensional matrix -- shallow recession versus deep recession on one dimension and capitalism lives as we know versus capitalism dies as we know it on the other dimension. He limited his remarks to the scenario of a long and deep recession with capitalism still being alive and well. He said that we may face years and even decades of weak economic conditions. Eventually a strong economy will emerge, but it will be fundamentally restructured from what we know now. Kind of depressing, but a real possibility to many in the room.
He believes that there will be three dominant forces in the new economy -- healthcare, education, and leisure.
Also had some interesting discussions with Mish Shedlock (Global Economic Trends), Sramana Mitra, Mark Thoma (Economist's View), and Charles Johnson (student blogger from Claremont McKenna College).
It was a great chance to finally put some faces with some really great bloggers.
I agree with the three emerging industries but what about green energy? I think that is going to be huge.