Bottom of the Recession will not Occur Until at Least Second Quarter of 2009

I wrote yesterday about the job outlook as indicated by the NFIB monthly survey of small business owners in the US.  The full report was issued this morning.  For small business owners, January started off as badly as December ended. The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 1.1 points to 84.1 (1986=100), the second-lowest reading in the 35-year history of the National Federation of Independent Business survey.

"The failure of the index to rebound from historic low readings as it did in 1980 indicates that the recession will encompass the first quarter, with little chance for a bottom before the second quarter," said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg.