NFIB Survey Differs from ADP Report on Jobs

"Seasonally adjusted, small business owners reported basically no new job creation over the past few months in the August NFIB survey (an average loss of -0.04 workers per firm, essentially no change). Eleven percent of the owners increased employment by an average of 5.7 workers per firm, and 15 percent reduced employment at an average of 3.7 workers per firm. Overall, this was a better performance than in recent months, but job growth will be negative again, and the unemployment rate will rise.

 

"Forty-six percent of the owners hired or tried to hire and 76 percent of those trying to hire reported few or no qualified applicants for the job openings they were trying to fill. Fifteen percent (seasonally adjusted) reported unfilled job openings, well below the 34-year average of 22, and down two points from July, suggesting a higher unemployment rate for August. Nine percent of the owners reported that the availability of qualified labor was their top business problem, well below last September's reading when openings were reported by 25 percent of all firms, and 17 percent complained about the lack of qualified labor.

 

"Over the next three months, 13 percent plan to create new jobs, and 10 percent plan workforce reductions yielding a seasonally adjusted net 9 percent of owners planning to create new jobs - a solid improvement over recent readings. 

 

"Not seasonally adjusted, more owners plan to cut employment than planned to increase jobs in the retail trades, agriculture and construction industries (winter is coming). Job creation plans are most frequent in professional services and manufacturing businesses. Regionally, more firms plan cuts than increases among firms in New England, the East South Central states and the Mountain states.   In the Mid-Atlantic and Pacific states, about as many owners planned to cut jobs as planned to increase employment."